There is so much to mentally process at this time of year – end of vacation spurts, opening of school, debut of the fall sports season, late season gardening, changing up the screen doors, digging out warmer clothes.
Who has time to conjure up what a new weather cycle might bring?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, that’s who.
In a simple sentence, here’s the prognostication: across the U.S., winter will be warmer than usual and a bit wetter.
Closer to home in northwest Pennsylvania, the same outlook is expected with more rain than snow and more cozier temperatures than freezing marks.
For good measure, let’s toss in a little Latin, courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
According to NOAA, there is a 70 percent likelihood that the northern hemisphere will be in an El Nino pattern for winter. La Nina is the cold phase of a two-part outlook that considers a litany of scientific data on temperature trends. The warmer partner is El Nino.
“We will have an El Nino winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the U.S.,” predicts NOAA, adding that covers the season from October through March.
The distinctive yellow-jacketed almanac agrees.
Describing the 2018-19 winter forecast as “milder than normal,” the almanac said the reasons are two-fold: a decrease in solar activity and the El Nino scenario that prevents “cold air masses from lingering” across much of the U.S. That will also impact the precipitation rate which will bring more rain than snow for the winter.
There are caveats, though, in the NOAA as well as other winter forecasts, including those that are typically prepared by the National Weather Service.
It comes down to a “too-early-to-know” opinion.
“There is really no telling what the season will bring,” according to NOAA.
In taking the “check back” advice to heart, a look back at the 2017-18 winter in this area shows two things that stand out, according to the National Weather Service – a cold, cold winter all the way through April (with the exception of a 70-degree day in late February) and a huge snowfall total for a season (198.5 inches) in Erie that saw a white Christmas with 60-plus inches in 60 hours.
Meanwhile, we lay people can cast about for our own weather prediction assertions.
The professional weather folks as well as the almanac scribes undoubtedly look with disfavor on those of us who create our own forecasts by eyeing the wooly caterpillars’ striped backs, the toughness of black walnut hides, height of the hornets’ nest, when the Monarchs leave, when the crickets arrive, the size of acorns, or the density of south bound geese flocks.
They may be phooey factors rather than science but, admit it, the scrutiny keeps us busy and on our toes.
Perhaps more importantly, stepping outside gives us a healthy dollop of reality and brings the weather right to us.
